Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Mudcat on Creigh's Path to Victory, Moran's liabilities

Blue Virginia has an interview up with political strategist Mudcat Saunders. I just want to highlight what he said about Creigh's path to the Democratic nomination:

Creigh is not going to beat Terry and Brian in NOVA. If Creigh wins big in the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 9th and doesn't get creamed in the 8th, 10th and 11th, he can win. Creigh’s a moderate and has a definite path to victory both in June and in November.

Now, of course, the devil is in the details of what Mudcat means by "wins big" and "gets creamed." Still, it is a fairly sound rebuttal to all those writing Creigh off. I'd argue that if Creigh gets 20 percent plus up in NoVA -- which I think is more likely than not at this point, given the potential negative turn the Moran v. McAuliffe fight is likely to take (if the early blog skirmishing is any indication of what's to come), then Creigh will win the primary.

Given that such a large percentage of the electorate is undecided at this point, neither Moran nor McAuliffe seem to be generating any kind of loyal following. Their negative campaign will almost certainly succeed in turning significant numbers of voters away from the other guy, but not necessarily gain their vote for themselves. If that dynamic takes hold, Creigh could easily and solidly outperform expectations in NoVA.

The other interesting thing about the interview is Mudcat's take on both McAuliffe and Moran's abilities to appeal to Virginia's rural voters. If Mudcat is right, Moran could spell disaster for the party come November if he gets the nod. This is a meme I predict we'll be hearing more about, especially if Moran's poll numbers outside NoVA don't pick up.


  1. I really hope Creigh can pull this out.

  2. In light of recent events, I've never been prouder to be supporting Sen. Deeds.