Saturday, October 24, 2009

Showing Up

Judging by the backbiting and recriminations that have spilled over to the pages of the Washington Post, Democrats are stoically steeling themselves for a tough defeat on Nov. 3 by building the foundation to blame someone else.

Indeed, this argument has been going on in the blogs since June, when Creigh won the primary. Of course, memes move faster and more intensely in cyberspace.

In my view, there is still an election to be had, however, and as long as that is the case, anyone who cares about what will happen in the Commonwealth of Virginia for the next four years, at least, should focus on the question of what they can do to help Creigh win this election, because if recent elections have shown anything, they have shown that Republicans can no longer beat Democrats in Virginia; Democrats can only beat themselves.

The other day, conservative blog Bearing Drift carried a very interesting post about Bob McDonnell’s lead in the polls. Pregressives should listen. Here is what they had to say:
Polls are not strictly predictors. They do not foretell exactly what people are going to do. Rather, they are snapshots. They tell us what the results are likely to be should people show up on Election Day in the same numbers as the particular poll presumes they will.

In other words, the reliability of a poll is dependent upon the actual electorate closely resembling the pollsters’ sample. That is why it is important to look beyond the top-line results of these polls to understand what these polls are telling us about the potential electorate. That is also why the accuracy of a particular poll does not necessarily carry over from election to election. Quite simply, human beings are rather unpredictable.


If Republicans are to win this election, however, it is going to take more than simply hoping the other side decides not to show up.

But, you know, the fact is that all Bob McDonnell does have for him in this election is hoping Democrats do not show up. Look at every poll – they go Bob’s way because the composition of likely voters is disproportionately heavy with Republicans and Conservatives compared to recent statewide Virginia elections.

Indeed, it seems sometimes that is how Republicans and Conservatives see the path to victory in every race: deter the other side from showing up to vote. Sometimes, they use sleazy tactics, like caging, and sometimes they use blatantly illegal ones, likie giving voters false information. GOP opposition to motor voter laws, or their insitance on picture IDs to register to vote, are all aimed at depressing turnout and voting rights.

So, leaving aside all the crap in the papers and the blogs about campaign strategy, and leaving aside all the parsing of policy, in the end we will be left with a choice between two people with very different worldviews and outlooks on the role of government in our lives.

if we show up, Creigh will win and Bob will lose – simple as that.

1 comment:

  1. Yes,republican register football teams, a dead actors and singer, and bus felons to vote like ACORN, yes republicans and conservatives are evil and democrats can do no wrong and never have, other then support slavery and segregation, and tax people's hard earned money thru taxes and violate the Constitution on every chance they get.