I've Left the Virginia Democratic Party...

Cross-Posted at DailyKOS and the HokieGuru blog

And not because I don't have progressive views about the future... the Virginia Democratic Party has left me.

The Virginia Democratic Party has been "leaderless" for almost two years. We've had hit rock bottom. Let's talk about some of the things that need to be fixed for me to come back into the fold (e.g out of Independent status)... let's start at the top:

1. Barack Obama - I love you, Mr. President, but no one knows what you stand for. You've been AWOL in the federal budget fight, you accept whatever cuts the House Republicans want, and we are now in a third war (and we are borrowing from China to finance those operations). I don't see you standing up for the party members, either... I see you talking in generalities, but there is no positive message from you on how your policies (or lack there of) are going to make the nation better off.
   
2. Tim Kaine - Dude, please quit playing drama queen and get off your "fence" about running for Senate. You have ruined the chance that other candidates (much better candidates, I might add) will run for the federal political office that impacts every Virginian's life. After your tenure and the DNC (and the substantial electoral losses... pretty much wiping out our 2006 and 2008 House and Senate gains), why anyone would want you to run for Senate is beyond me. It's kind of like banging your head against the wall repeatedly and stopping because it feels so good (e.g. insanity). Please do us all a favor and take the ambassador position in Madrid.
3. Jim Webb - Jim, I understand why you are leaving (Senate Dems are going to be in the minority in 2012). However, this is a time when we need your leadership in the Senate. We can no longer endure draconian budget cuts and during your last few weeks, we need you to stop caving... we also need you to talk some sense into Tim Kaine.
   
4. Jim Moran - You have lost your only chance to be a House committee chairmen... won't ever happen for you... as a committee chair, you would have the authority to send resources to Alexandria and Arlington, part of the economic power engine in the State of Virginia. It's time for you to retire. We need new blood in your seat... someone that is in touch with the district and it's needs... someone that has a chance to lead. You've been a back bencher for years and it's time for you to end that charade.
   
5. Creigh Deeds - You did nothing to reach out to younger voters (that's why Barack Obama won... reaching out in Northern Virginia would have been a good idea). The downslide in the Virginia Democratic Party really began with you, man. Your 2009 Virginia Governor campaign was the worst I have ever seen in politics. It might have brought the Virginia Democratic Party to pre-1993 levels.
6. Brian Moran - Dude, seriously, where do I start? I have no idea how you are the Chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia. Hello, you run for Governor, you can't even win your own home precinct, and you get this important leadership role? WTF. Really? Dude, seriously... what are you doing to build the Democratic Party in Virginia? I see no strategic message or positive message for the future originating from your office... you need to lead the efforts in this area... as a party, we can't say, don't vote for the other party because they suck... we have to say this is why our polices are going to make your life better... a strong positive message about the future is what we need. Who is in charge of strategic communication, anyway? It is bad enough that you support a proprietary educational industry that eats at the tax payer trough.
   
7. Dick Saslaw - Dude, you are my Senator... I've voted for you a couple times, but I'm not donating just because you say Cooch sucks. You can only play the firewall role so long. Where is your positive vision for the future? How are you going to make life better for Virginia (and more specifically, Alexandria) residents? I see nothing coming out of the Virginia Senate "leadership."

You notice here that I've consistently talked (several times above) about a positive message for the future... this is what people respond to... how do you plan to make Virginian lives better? What can we do better than Republicans? This is a conservative state... not gonna get away with trashing the other party... must make a case as to why we are better. How will people benefit from our policies? None of those seven people above are doing that. I've never seen a party so lost in the wilderness.

And that's why I'm now an Independent voter and have left the Virginia Democratic Party. I may be back in the fold in November 2012... but you have to win me back... with a positive message about the future.

Ask not what your President can do for you

Interesting item, from the Adam Nagourney article in today’s New York Times:

A White House that has shown no hesitation to delve into state race [sic] across the country … has been struggling to figure out how to deal with Virginia. Mr. Deeds’ aides have pleaded with the White House to send Mr. Obama into the state; they have yet to agree.

“The most precious commodity we have is the president’s time, and we have to appropriate it on a rational basis between now and Election Day,” said David Axelrod, a senior advisor to Mr. Obama.

Now, that comment is simply hilarious, especially in light of the convincing defenses offered by Mr. alelrod in defending Obama's trip to Copenhagen.

Mr. Axelrod, however, apparently believes he can say just about anything and by infusing that quality in Mr. Obama, it will be taken seriously. Here, try this on to see what I mean: “The most precious commodity we have is the president’s sense of fashion when it comes to mixing and matching colors and textures, and we have to appropriate it on a rational basis between now and Election Day,” said David Axelrod, a senior advisor to Mr. Obama.)

To anyone who has been paying to attention to Obama’s nine months in office, one thing has become clear to me. This presidency is not about the economy, or energy, or any particular policy. The Obama presidency is about Obama, nothing more, nothing less. Everything else is a means to an end.

Thus, Obama does not ask himself how he can help Democrats win in Virginia. Rather, Axlerod’s comments make clear that Obama is concerned with how Virginia will help him.

The calculation at this point seems to be that Creigh will lose this race, and if Obama gets too involved, then the Virginia gubernatorial results can be spun as a referendum on Obama. But if the president does not get too involved, then Obama gets to spin the race as a local contest in which Obama was not front and center.

Right off the bat, I draw two conclusions from this:

Creigh was absolutely correct not to rely on Obama’s Virginia coalition in trying to win this race. He correctly read that Obama would be a follower, not a leader, in the election. Had Creigh relied on Obama, this election would be lost. As it is, Creigh is behind, but the election remains winnable.

For all the talk of change and a transformational presidency, Obama is just another typical politician, clinging onto power for power’s sake. I still support him and am in line with his overall goals and governing philosophy, but he is not a Democratic Party leader.

Obama and Deeds - The Ties That Bind

As I have watched polls over the summer in the gubernatorial contest, I have been mildly concerned given how bad Creigh seemed to be doing. Unlike some others, I didn’t dismiss the polls or their methodology, although at the same time given how early they were, I didn’t think they were at all predictive of what would happen in the election.

The real question I had was what were these polls measuring? Their lopsided and counter intuitive results, IMHO, were attributable not to the specific candidates, but rather to three environmental aspects of the political landscape this past summer that were all lined up against Creigh.

Two of those factors, however, now appear to be moving in Creigh’s direction, and the third may as well. All else being equal, I wouldn’t be surprised to soon see polls showing McDonnell losing support and Creigh gaining it, leaving both candidates pulling in the mid- to high 40s, solidly within the MoE.

The first factor was that over the summer mainstream Conservatives, teabaggers, and your garden-variety birthers, deathers and racists, not to mention Republican Party regulars, were able to coalesce around opposition to health care reform, pulling in many people who are usually on the periphery or outside of political battles into the fray. The result was a temporary and intense spike in enthusiasm among these groups, who were united in their opposition to both the President and the Democratic Party, and their need for Prozac.

These groups, given their pack dog mentality, were further egged on by the President’s insistence on turning the other cheek in the name of bipartisanship, which they saw as a sign of his weakness and their strength. At the same time, the perception among Progressives began to grow that the President would sell out important principles in pursuit of a deal with Republicans, causing many to ask what was the point of elections if, once in office, the people we elect are subservient to the ones we defeated?

Finally, the loud, thuggish tactics of these groups at town halls over the summer drew plenty of media coverage, giving the impression of a tiny, but intense grassroots movement being much larger and more significant than it really was.

As a result of all this, from mid-July into August, Republicans were becoming hyper-energized while Democrats were becoming dispirited. This was clearly reflected in Virginia’s Gubernatorial polling numbers

Consider, in five polls following the primary from mid-June through the end of July, the margin in the gubernatorial race was: +6 Deeds; +4 Deeds; +1 McD; +6 McD; and +3 McD.

Beginning with a SUSA poll from July 27 and 28, however, the margin in the polls shot up to +15 McD, and has since pretty much stayed there, although a couple of polls showed more modest margins of +7 McD and +b McD, better but still outside the MoE.

According to Gallup, meanwhile, over the same time period President Obama’s weekly approval average took a dive. It stood at 62/31 in early June, a spread of 31 points. By the end of July, when Creigh’s numbers began to deteriorate, those figures were at 54/39, with a spread of 15.

Obama kicked ass Wednesday night, although the extent to which he has remade the debate remains to be seen. That will be determined by his actions over the next several weeks.

IF Obama follows through on his tough words –

IF Obama truly calls Republicans out by name for their lies –

IF Obama lays down the law for the Blue Dogs –

IF Obama is one the way to leading Democrats in Congress to genuine health care reform with or without Republicans –

If he does all these things, then Democrats will be fired up. We will believe that elections make a difference, and this will most certainly be reflected in greater and sustained support for Creigh.

If, on the other hand, Obama reverts to previous form, and simply pursues bipartisanship as a goal in and of itself, regardless of the boorish and dishonest behavior of Republicans, Democrats will again become dispirited. At least this one will.

Early indications are mixed. Joe Wilson gave the President, Democrats and proponents of health care reform a gift the other night, but the President tried to give it back. As a result, he again wound up playing Charlie Brown trying to kick the football as some no-name BSC congressman took on the role of Lucy pulling it away. Just has the President was graciously saying how he forgave Joe Wilson after the Congressman’s sincere apology last night, the boorish Wilson was telling reporters that his apology was not sincere at all, but that the leadership forced him to make it. And now he has put out a fundraising video in which he says, “I will not be muzzled.”

The second factor was Creigh’s month-long absence from the campaign trail in July and the manner in which it was handled. This was a tactical error that left Bob McDonnell alone to define himself as a moderate.

Indeed, Creigh’s drop in the polls, while coinciding with the dynamics of the larger health care debate going on nationally, also coincided with his absence from the public eye. Arguably, he could have mitigated his erosion in the polls had he been a more aggressive campaigner during that time.

The result of McDonnell’s efforts, however, can be seen in the most recent SUSA poll, where McDonnell is pulling 42% of the self-described moderate voter, 15% of the self-described liberals, and 31% of self-described pro-choice voters. At the same time, McDonnell is getting 89% of self-described Conservatives. Similarly, McDonnell is attracting 19% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans, not to mention 13% of Obama voters, at the same time he is garnering 90% of McCain voters.

In short, these numbers show McDonnell is attracting considerable support from people diametrically opposed to his positions, without sacrificing any of his base. (I realize that the small samples of these sub-groups call the accuracy of them into question, but the consistency among each group, even accounting for the overlap, suggests it is not simply a case of skewed numbers).

Several weeks ago, Creigh had already begun to address this, using the choice issue to expose McDonnell as the extreme social Conservative that he is when McDonnell’s thesis came along. So far, it has been a game of catch-up for him – between the Democratic primary and Creigh’s lost month, McDonnell has had Virginia’s Independent voters to himself for seven months.

That will change, however, as voters focus more on the race. While the thesis fallout has yet to show up in polls, McDonnell simply has too much of a public record to avoid the issue forever. McDonnell’s ability to conceal the huge gulf between what he really believes and how he has presented himself, will prove increasingly difficult, if not impossible.

The third factor that has been affecting the polls is the exhaustion of Virginia’s Democrats. Beginning in January 2008, the Obama-Clinton primary pitted Democrats against one-another. Following Obama’s nomination, we came together for a few months, but with Virginia being a swing state, the campaign was intense. No sooner did that intense election end that a hard fought, again intense, and a sometimes personally bitter primary campaign took its place. This lasted through June.

To an extent, the joint effect of renewed support for the President and the exposing of Bob McDonnell will counteract this, but it won’t fully address it.

Further, the fact is that Creigh was a compromise winner in the primary who benefited from the three-way dynamic of that race. While he got 50% of the vote, the intensity of his support was behind that of both Moran and McAuliffe; Creigh’s core support was only in the low 20s throughout the entire primary season. Consequently, even leaving aside his folksy, self-effacing campaign style, Creigh is unlikely to be able to rouse Virginia’s Democrats from their malaise alone.

The key here, I believe, is getting the Commonwealth’s party leaders in to stump for Creigh as much as possible. We need Mark Warner. We need Jim Webb. We need the President (and not just for fundraising). And I say let’s get the Big Dog in here, for goodness sakes.

Even with that, however, in the final analysis, it is Creigh and Creigh alone who has to close the sale.

But at least now he is competing on a more hospitable playing field.

A Kid's Comments On Obama's Speech

I hereby present, without comment, a Q&A with my son Jonah, age 9, 4th grader at Venable Elementary School in Charlottesville, about President Obama's speech today:

AZNEW: What did the President tell you?

JONAH: To stay in school, and though it gets really hard and rough throughout the years, to never give up in school.

What did you think of that?

I thought it was pretty cool. It would have been better if he made the speech at Venable.

Are you going to stay in school?

Yes.

Was it exciting to see the President?

Yes.

Are you now or have you ever been a Socialist?

What’s that mean?

Well, it’s a way of thinking that makes some grown-ups mad. And some grown-up thought President Obama would turn you into a Socialist. Do you think he might have?

Yeah.

Do you love America?

Yes.

Do you still love America after hearing President Obama?

Yes.

Do you like President Obama?

Yes

Why?

Because he’s a good president

And I have to ask you one more question.

What?

Creigh Deeds or Bob McDonnell?

Creigh Deeds!