Saturday, May 9, 2009

Creigh Decisively Wins 10th CD Straw Poll

I'm tellin' you, Creigh is going to win this thing.

From the Deeds campaign:

Deeds beats McAuliffe and Moran in fast-growing outer suburbs in Northern Virginia, Deeds get more votes than his two opponents combined

LEESBURG – Earlier today, Creigh Deeds pulled off a major upset at Northern Virginia’s 10th Congressional District Democratic Convention in Leesburg, receiving more votes than his two opponents combined.  The straw poll took place at the meeting of the 10th District Democrats, which includes the fast-growing outer suburbs in the Northern Virginia counties of Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, Fauquier, Clarke, Warren, and Frederick, and the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Winchester.

“With just 31 days to go, our grassroots campaign continues to gain momentum heading into the June 9th primary," said Joe Abbey, Campaign Manager for the Deeds campaign. "It’s clear that all across the Commonwealth, Virginians are responding to Creigh’s positive message of creating opportunity, prosperity, and hope in every corner of Virginia.  This grassroots straw poll shows what we’ve known all along: Creigh Deeds will put us in the strongest position to beat Bob McDonnell in November.  Northern Virginia leaders like Dick Saslaw, Mary Margaret Whipple, Janet Howell, and Chap Petersen have lined up behind Creigh, because they know that he can bring people together from every part of Virginia to invest in a statewide system of transportation.  No one is more prepared to be Governor.”

The results of the 10th Congressional District Straw Poll were as follows:

Creigh Deeds – 49 Votes
Terry McAuliffe – 24 votes
Brian Moran – 23 votes

Last week, The Washington Post called Creigh Deeds, "a legislator of substance and former prosecutor with a keen understanding of issues important to Northern Virginia."  The Virginian-Pilot recently said that Deeds is the Democratic candidate who "most naturally fits into the moderate mold shaped by Mark Warner and Tim Kaine" and this came after The Lynchburg News and Advance said that Deeds "appeals to many of the same centrist Democrats and independents who supported Mark Warner in his gubernatorial campaign in 2001." 


  1. Is it true that Deeds bussed in supporters to the event?

  2. I have no idea -- I'm not a part of the campaign. All I know is in the press release, above, which I provided in full.

    But what difference would it make? It's a straw poll, and an indication, in part, of organization - no?

  3. Anon -- Did a little research. Apparently, it was a convention, so it is not the type of thing that supporters can be bussed in. You have to be from the 10th CD to participate.

    Also, it is tough to think of a more important district than the 10th when it comes to statewide elections. Indeed, in recent election cycles, if I'm not mistaken, the 10th has pretty much mirrored the statewide vote, which makes sense if you think of its make-up -- part suburban, part exurban, part rural.

  4. Well I gotta say this about Straw Polls.

    Straw Polls are more a measure of the organization of a campaign than the actual strength of them. So this means Deeds is competitive on a grass-roots level (He can have a lot of staffer and volunteers on the ground) but it doesn't necessarily mean the results can be taken as an actual poll.

    P.S. Check out my new blog:

  5. Rich Galecki, 10th CD Chairman, didn't tell anyone but the Deeds camp that there was a straw poll. The Deeds campaign built for this secret straw poll.

    Ridiculous. What a stunt.

  6. Waaa. Waaa.

    According to Bruce Rommelt, McAuliffe and Moran has surrogates there.

    Just in case, you are aware the Primary is June 9, right? Because after Creigh wins, I don't want to hear on Jne 10 that no one told you.

  7. I was there and it was a fair vote amoung the delegates to the 10th CD convention. We all had to be elected by our county committees. No body was bussed in. No way to stack the vote. This was just a poll of the party activists in the 10th.

  8. Thanks, Bob. I appreciate the first hand testimony.

    I strongly believe that there is a lot more support for Criegh among Democrats than is being measured in the polls. We'll see June 9.

  9. Well, that makes the third candidate to claim awesome prospects of June victory based on a straw poll. Woohoo, it's in the bag!

  10. I honestly think it means nothing. Bob's testimony of saying there was no bussing in seals the deal of it not meaning anything. Why? Because bussing in would indicate that the Straw poll relied on organization, but since it was not so, it just means Creigh won a straw poll of a bunch of obscure part insiders.

    Here's my take on my new blog:

  11. You should be all over this:


  13. Means nothing? I have a different read. I think it shows that the Clinton Camp, which is strong in NOVA is supporting Terry but those of us in "the real Virginia" have other other ideas.

    The 10th is a microcosim of the state (and the Nation). We have peices of Fairfax and the Valley - and everything inbetween. The largest county is Loudon. It was critical for the Kaine, Webb, Warner and Obama victories.

    What I take away from this is that Deeds sounds, looks and acts like a real Virinian and can win the entire state. The other candidates will need to depend on a very strong win in NOVA. The winner will need a total of about 2 million votes in the fall. There will be about 1.6 million votes in NOVA. Terry or Brian will need over 1 million of them. That is a minimum of 63% of the NOVA vote.

    They will get only about 45% outside of NOVA and 60% of all Virginians live outside NOVA. Creigh will do better in "the real Virginia".

  14. Bob - I agree 100% with your analysis. I recently looked at some election returns for the last couple of years, and in almost every case the 10CD mirrored statewide returns. I think the make-up of the district -- part suburb, part ex-urb, part rural, does mimic the state as a whole.

    But I can't sign on to the whole "real Virginian" rhetoric, but I can't tell exactly how you meant that from the context of your use.

  15. When I use "the real Virginia", I am quoting the Republicans who use that line. I am trying to mock them. This is how they are going to frame this race. NoVA vs RoVA (rest of Virginia). Creigh will play better in the real of Virginia.