The Super Voters and Creigh

According to Joe Abbey, Creigh’s campaign manager, if turnout remains under 200,000 voters, the contest will in all likelihood be decided by the “super voter” — the kind of Democratic activists who never miss an election.

If so, Creigh looks on track to have a good shot at winning this thing.

Who do these super voters support? No one can say definitively, but based on some interesting data in the last two PPP polls, it seems they lean decisively to Creigh.

In the last two polls, one issued June 2 and one issued May 22, PPP asked whether the voter participated only in the 2008 primary, or voted in the 2005, 2006 or 2007 primaries, as a proxy for separating dedicated Democratic voters from mere mortals.

In the June 2 poll, among those who voted in 2005, 2006 or 2007, results were as follows:

Deeds: 32
McAuliffe: 23
Moran: 26
Undecided: 20

Compare these numbers to the poll’s toplines:

Deeds: 27
McAuliffe: 24
Moran: 22
Undecided: 27

How are these super voters breaking in these final weeks?

In the May 22 poll, among those who voted in 2005, 2006 or 2007, results were as follows (followed by the difference with the later poll):

Deeds: 26
McAuliffe: 23
Moran: 21
Undecided: 30

And the change from the May 22 poll to the June 2 poll:

Deeds: +6
McAuliffe: No change
Moran: +5
Undecided: -10

It is fairly clear that dedicated Democratic voters are breaking evenly, for now, between Creigh and Moran. Whether one or the other will ultimately seize control is hard to say, but one thing seem fairly certain: they will not be breaking for McAuliffe.