Wednesday, June 3, 2009

The Super Voters and Creigh

According to Joe Abbey, Creigh’s campaign manager, if turnout remains under 200,000 voters, the contest will in all likelihood be decided by the “super voter” — the kind of Democratic activists who never miss an election.

If so, Creigh looks on track to have a good shot at winning this thing.

Who do these super voters support? No one can say definitively, but based on some interesting data in the last two PPP polls, it seems they lean decisively to Creigh.

In the last two polls, one issued June 2 and one issued May 22, PPP asked whether the voter participated only in the 2008 primary, or voted in the 2005, 2006 or 2007 primaries, as a proxy for separating dedicated Democratic voters from mere mortals.

In the June 2 poll, among those who voted in 2005, 2006 or 2007, results were as follows:

Deeds: 32
McAuliffe: 23
Moran: 26
Undecided: 20

Compare these numbers to the poll’s toplines:

Deeds: 27
McAuliffe: 24
Moran: 22
Undecided: 27

How are these super voters breaking in these final weeks?

In the May 22 poll, among those who voted in 2005, 2006 or 2007, results were as follows (followed by the difference with the later poll):

Deeds: 26
McAuliffe: 23
Moran: 21
Undecided: 30

And the change from the May 22 poll to the June 2 poll:

Deeds: +6
McAuliffe: No change
Moran: +5
Undecided: -10

It is fairly clear that dedicated Democratic voters are breaking evenly, for now, between Creigh and Moran. Whether one or the other will ultimately seize control is hard to say, but one thing seem fairly certain: they will not be breaking for McAuliffe.


  1. Congrats AZ, at least your hatred of Moran is not as irrational as Lowell or Ben, and you too can see that either Moran or Deeds is going to win, because this will be a low turnout.

  2. Glad to hear I am Super!

    But I think Creigh's chances--or any other Dem's chance in November would be a lot greater if Pres. Obama could bring himself to act more like FDR--and less like an HMO Exec or NSDAP functionary.

    Sheesh! $300 Billion in Medicare cuts while handing Trillion$ to Wall Street!! Not a winning Dem strategy.

  3. I still in a wait and see with Obama. I hear what you are saying, but to a great degree cirgumstances forced his hand.